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Long-term mitigation scenarios

 

In July 2008, Cabinet agreed on an ambitious plan, setting a strategic direction for national climate policy and doing a fair share in the international context. The plan laid out government’s vision, strategic direction and framework for climate policy (see the media statement based on the Cabinet meeting, from the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism's website. The Department asked ERC to project-manage the process, with Harald Winkler as co-ordinator.

These outcomes have implications at the national and international level. Nationally, LTMS laid the basis for broadly supported, robust climate policy. Internationally, it has provided scenarios that can inform negotiating positions. (For a more detailed discussion of these, and fuller background material, see the Project report.)

The Cabinet outcome was based on two years of intensive work, led by the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism. From a process point of view, it is important to note that a wide range of stakeholders approved the LTMS Scenario document and accepted a Technical summary . The scenarios were informed by the best available scientific research. The Energy Research Centre coordinated four research teams. They used inter alia energy and macroeconomic models to explore the consequences of various policy interventions aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The process was independently facilitated by Stefan Raubenheimer (see Process report), and resulted in scenarios, strategic options, mitigation potentials and cost-effectiveness of different interventions.

The research produced evidence-based scenarios, summarised in several documents, now available online here: