Energy Research Centre

Current and recent projects in detail

Estimating effective carbon prices in South Africa

Client: OECD

Period:  2011

Project leader:  Britta Rennkamp

Project team: Britta Rennkamp, Andrew Marquard, Tara Caetano

Putting a price on carbon is currently one of the most important topics on the South African climate policy agenda. The National Climate Change Response White paper indicates that it will be necessary to price carbon emissions. The national treasury suggests tax instrument for this purpose. Yet, there are a number of implicit pricing instruments on carbon in place already. In their study on effective carbon prices, ERC researchers analyze the current instruments for carbon pricing in the energy and transport sector and their impacts on the pulp and paper and cement industries as well as households. The Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation OECD does comparative work on carbon prices and has commissioned similar studies in other countries.

Link to OECD website.

Carbon budget methods for South Africa

Client: Sustainable Energy Africa

Period:  January–March 2012

Project team: Harald Winkler and Andrew Marquard

This research considers the method by which carbon budgets (CB) can be defined for major sectors and sub-sectors in South Africa. Climate policy has mandated the definition of sectoral carbon budgets and the National Development Plan endorses the CB approach. The 2011 White Paper  affirms that SA’s greenhouse emissions must ‘peak, plateau and decline’ (PPD), thereby formalising in policy the strategic direction Cabinet had set in response to the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS). The same PPD pathway was part of the Copenhagen pledge, that emissions would deviate 34% below business-as-usual by 2020 and 42% by 2025, as communicated formally to the UNFCCC in 2010. The area under a curve is effectively our national carbon budget. Allocating it to secxtors and firms should be based on science and equity.

Our research will examine methodologies to divide the national CB among sectors – and major emitting facilities. We critically examine methodologies for robust accounting of GHG emission reductions,  reviewing a range of methodologies – both those used internaitonally and in previous research in South Africa. As the LTMS demonstrated, both research and process are crucial. So this brief think-piece will also consider elements of the allocation process that will be needed, and how different constraints to a national negotiating process on a CB might be addressed.

The output of the project will be a short paper. This will be made available publicly, and we hope it will be found relevant by decision-makers.

Measurement and Performance Tracking (MAPT)

Client: World Resources Institute

Period:  Scoping Phase in 2011

Project leader at ERC:  Anya Boyd

Project team at ERC: Anya Boyd, Richard Larmour, Thapelo Letete, Britta Rennkamp, Harald Winkler

The World Resources Institute (WRI) is leading the Measurement and Performance Tracking (MAPT) initiative in six developing countries, including South Africa. The goal of this project is to work in partnership with national actors to build capacity and promote shared perspectives and readiness among key stakeholders on the design and implementation of credible systems to make mitigation actions by developing countries measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV), at the national, policy, and industry levels.

This first scoping phase will focus on mapping existing domestic MRV capacity in South Africa and identifying needs and opportunities for capacity development. The ERC will provide expert consultation and analystical research – based advice on domestic MRV in South Africa.

Link to project website.

Developing country participation in addressing climate change: Analysing issues and options for implementing NAMAs

Client: Norwegian Government

Period:  2010-2012

Project leader at ERC:  Anya Boyd

The ERC is working together with The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) and research partners from China and Brazil on a project titled Developing country participation in addressing climate change: Analysing issues and options for implementing NAMAs and REDD Plus. The project focuses on country specific research from Brazil, South Africa, India and China on issues associated with the identification and implementation of NAMAs. The broad research areas are as follows:

• Identification of Potential Mitigation Actions
• Assessing Appropriateness of Potential Mitigation Actions
• Assessing Country Preparedness, examining implementational issues around NAMAs at a country level
• Enhancing Preparedness for the implementation of NAMAs at a country level

The ERC is leading the South African case study on issues pertaining to NAMAs in South Africa.

Link to project website.

UNITAR Phase 2

Client: UNITAR

Period:  2009 - 2011

Project leader at ERC:  Anya Boyd

Project team at ERC: Debbie Sparks, Thapelo Letete, Alfred Moyo, Andrew Marquard

The progamme focuses on the implementation of a project on capacity development for adaptation to climate change and GHG mitigation in Non-Annex I Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Under the UNITAR programme, the ERC is part of the C3D+ network, along with partner organisations, and this work is jointly implemented by UNITAR and the ERC in collaboration with the Munasinghe Institute for Sustainable Development (MIND), as well as other partners and supported by a grant from the European Commission.

:

Main activities:

1. Capacity building activities include an internship programme hosted at the ERC, delivery of climate-related short courses, and a bursary programme for trainees registered for the ERC's energy and climate change masters programme.

2. Support for developing countries National Communications by developing a mitigation analysis toolkit for developing countries, which will consist of a simple set of accessible tools for mitigation analysis, training in the region in the use of the toolkit, and an online resource for tool users. The ERC will evaluate currently-existing tools, and if and where appropriate, will partner with other organisations/institutions in this regard.

3. Implement jointly with MIND a three year research programme on the interrelationship between energy, poverty and climate change

4. A 3 year research project on the impacts of climate change mitigation on the South African economy.

a)   Research the impacts of climate change on agriculture in the Western Cape through a case study of deciduous fruit farming, which would

b)   consider the likely impacts of climate change on fruit farming, and

c)   research adaptation strategies.

Individual project components are listed separately on this page.

Mitigation analysis toolkit for developing countries

Client: UNITAR C3D (sub-project of Unitar Phase 2)

Period: January 2009 to February 2011

Project leader: Thapelo Letete

Project team: ERC interns: Lehlogonolo Chiloane, Gracia Munganga, David Philips

ERC is in the process of developing a mitigation analysis toolkit over a three year period for developing countries which consists of a simple set of accessible tools for mitigation analysis, training in the region in the use of the toolkit, and an online resource for tool users. The toolkit forms an entry point basis for National Communications and develops energy policy and planning capacity which deepens the understanding of GHG reduction commitments and helps to integrate these better into national development frameworks of developing countries. The main focus of the analysis techniques focus on the energy sector, but the toolkit will contain related tools for non-energy emission mitigation options as well.  

In the initial phases, the focus was largely be on evaluating existing international tools and identifying which tools are deemed to be instrumental in capacitating the developing world.

From this was identified a set of tools for the developing world that are either unavailable freely, not available in readily usable forms or totally unavailable in any open-access database. These were then earmarked for development, through this project, to form part of the mitigation analysis toolkit for developing countries.

The following tools make up the toolkit which is currently under development:

1. Post-2012 mitigation analysis tool: This excel-based tool allows for the following analyses:

   • Base year comparison

   • Annex I Burden-sharing options

   • NAI emission space

2. Personal carbon footprint calculator

3. Mitigation project analysis tool

Climate change and variability: adaptation of deciduous fruit farmers in the Western Cape

Client: UNITAR C3D (sub-project of Unitar Phase 2)

Period: August 2009 to May 2011

Project leader: Debbie Sparks

Project team: Mascha Moorlach, independent consultant Jocelyn Muller

The deciduous fruit farming industry of the Western Cape, South Africa is likely to be impacted by climate change. Grape cultivars will see the effects of climate change, and this could have consequences for the wine industry. An important effect of an increase in temperature and a change in rainfall regime is the likely change in wine quality. The scoping phase of this project confirmed the benefits of a more detailed follow-up study, considering the impacts of climate change on the grape farmers in the deciduous fruit farming industry.

Primary objectives

• To consider the potential impacts of climate change on wine farmers and the farming community Document existing coping strategies in times of climate variability in the Western Cape.

• Examine the social issues in the wine farming community (which could undermine adaptation efforts if not adequately considered).

• Provide capacity building and training on (adaptation to) climate change and variability to at least one previously disadvantaged wine farming community.

• Improvement in farmers’ economic gains through energy efficiency measures.

Methodology

• Literature review of fruit farming and climate change in the Western Cape.

• Field visits to selected previously disadvantaged wine farms (a wine farm was already identified as suitable for this follow-up study during the scoping phase).

• Capacity building and training of farmers and farming communities through participatory research methods.

• Energy efficiency will be examined and audited and suggestions for improvements made.

Transport energy, emissions and policy project

Client: Department of Environmental Affairs

Period: November 2009 to September 2011

Project leader:  Thapelo Letete

Project team:  Harald Winkler, Andrew Marquard,  Alfred Moyo; Peter Eldestrand and Jenny Marin (Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden);  Marianne Vanderschuren and Tanya Lane (Centre for Transport Studies, UCT)

Transport and energy are well understood by various research groups at the University of Cape Town, but the understanding of the intersecting set – transport energy – needs serious attention. Emissions from transport are the third-largest sector, after electricity supply and industry. The LTMS process identified mitigation options in transport as a key priority. It could be further elaborated to sustainable development policies and measures (SD-PAMs) for South Africa.

The research focuses on analysis of energy demand in the transport sector and the implied GHG emissions; a compilation of a comprehensive and up-to-date national transport database (which is likely to remain incomplete, due to data problems); simulating future scenarios; analysis of policy and institutional issues for implementation.

Mitigation action plans and scenarios (MAPS)

Client: Children’s Investment Fund Foundation

Period:  July 2010–December 2013

Process lead: Stefan Raubenheimer (SouthSouthNorth)

Strategy lead: Harald Winkler

The programme is run by ERC in collaboration with the SouthSouthNorth Trust

MAPS combines facilitated stakeholder processes with research. The programme will support South-South collaboration between developing countries in their plans to implement more ambitious mitigation actions.  ERC will focus on supporting researchers in MAPS countries, in analysing actions and how that can contribute to achieving targets and overall reductions in the growth of emissions.  MAPS builds on the experience of South Africa’s long-term mitigation scenarios (downloadable here). MAPS activities in each country will crucially include a participative process with stakeholders from all sectors. In this sense, MAPS is not only another research study – but the information will be produced in partnership with the best indigenous and international research.  It will strongly build on existing in-country research capacity, feeding information into a national process run by the country.

MAPS will start its implementation phase in earnest in 2011, with a focus on Latin American countries – and extension to African and Asian countries will be considered during this year. The MAPS team includes organisations in each country, and is supported by the same two organisations that managed the technical work in LTMS – ERC and SouthSouthNorth. In addition, a knowledge platform will be created, and support will be provided for researchers and facilitators from all MAPS countries. MAPS aims to share lessons and build a best practice research base. There will be research-based outputs from MAPS, but beyond research MAPS hopes to help to unlock the opportunities of a low-carbon future in the context of development.

Previous projects

Monitoring of SouthSouthNorth CDM projects in South Africa

• Client:  Helio International              

• Period: Jan 2003 - Dec 2004 and Jan 2006 – Dec 2008

• Project leader:

Monitors have to evaluate whether the project design process as laid out in the SSN Project Proposal has been duly implemented. This oversight has value for the teams leaders and for the funders. It also insures the respect of a set of principles: integrity, businesslike attitude in setting institutional arrangements with partners or government (MOUs), and transparency. Monitors observe and comment on all phases of the project cycle up to the transaction itself. Monitors have applied the generic Helio monitoring protocol to each of the SSN projects in their country and have assisted in the design of the detailed monitoring plan for each pilot project. The Helio team of monitors are co-ordinated from Pairs and are based in South Africa, Bangladesh, Brazil and the Philippines. The ERC team have focused their efforts on the South African, Mozambican and Tanzanian SSN Projects.  Deatails of the projects can be found on the SSN website.

Project team: JC Nkomo, Pierre Mukheibir, Randall Spalding-Fecher, Stanford Mwakasonda  

Quantifying SD-PAMs in national and international models

• Client: MNP Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency       

• Period: Nov 2007- March 2008

• Project leader:

The concept of SD-PAMs

Sustainable development policies and measures (SD-PAMs) are an approach to stimulating action on climate change mitigation in developing countries. Instead of starting from explicit climate targets, the approach deliberately sets out to start from development objectives. This strategic approach taps into the primary motivation for developing countries, namely development.

Defining more sustainable pathways to meet given development objectives has significant climate co-benefits. These co-benefits are by now broadly accepted, the question is how to capture these benefits in the multi-lateral climate regime. A new strategic approach is needed, and SD-PAMs offers one possible approach.

Research idea and objective

Energy is the sector contributing the most greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in South Africa and internationally. Understanding the mitigation options in the energy sector is critical to any proposed solution to the challenge of climate change. However, much of the analysis supporting the international climate change (CC) negotiations under the UNFCCC is insufficiently rooted in analysis of energy development paths at the national level. Policy options at the national level need to be more fully understood, based on in-country analysis.

This projects aims to link national energy models with international models considering the allocation of emissions allowances. We propose to develop a methodology to create such a linkage using South Africa as a test case to link a bottom up SD-PAMs analysis for South Africa with the MNP/FAIR and Ecofys/ EVOC models. This methodology is to be developed through a collaborative process between analysts from ERC, MNP and Ecofys.

In linking national and international models, lessons will be learned about the methodological steps required, and some modifications to the FAIR and / or TIMER energy model will be made to include public domain energy data for South Africa. These lessons would allow replication of this approach in other countries in future work. We believe that this connection can make a contribution to the discussion around future mitigation commitments under the UNFCCC. It allows analysts in developing countries to conduct national analysis in different international emission allocation proposals and evaluate this in a consistent manner as an input to policy-making on climate change and sustainable development. The collaborative work will enable researchers in industrialised countries to better represent South Africa in their models. In this, they will be able to draw on the public-domain data provided, adjust it to the formats required by their models and discuss any queries with South African analysts.

Project team:  Harald Winkler, Andrew Marquard, Michel den Elzen (MNP, Netherlands), Niklas Höhne (Ecofys, Germany), Stephen Davis, Jonathan Manley, Ajay Trikam

Long term mitigation scenario planning

• Client:  Department of Environment Affairs and Tourism

• Period: Aug 2006 – June 2008

• Project leader:

See the special section containing the reports from this major project

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to our planet and to our people. South Africa is especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. At the same time South Africa emits high quantities of the greenhouse gases which are causing climate change: in fact our country is one of the highest emitters per capita per GDP in the world. We are helping to cause the problem and we are also its victims.

Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases is called mitigation. Responding to the impacts of climate change is called adaptation. The Long Term Mitigation Scenario Process refers primarily to this activity.  A certain amount of adaptation will be necessary, no matter what we do. But it is also true that there will come a point where it will not be possible to adapt our way out of the problem.

South Africa is an active participant in the international process of combating climate change and regulating the emissions of greenhouse gases. We are signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change as well as the Kyoto Protocol. We take the issue of climate change very seriously and have shown world leadership in the UN negotiations. Our actions must also speak as loudly as our words in the negotiations: we need to show leadership by example. This we can do by preparing a course of action for our country.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, at least until 2012, we, together with most developing countries, have no binding greenhouse gas mitigation obligations. However this is possible that this may change some time after 2012, and means that at some point South African will be required to start cutting its emissions. South Africa is in fact already formulating plans to reduce GHG emissions.

Scenario planning

Mitigation is a delicate balance between development needs, available technology, cost to the economy, and policy intervention. South Africa has the opportunity to proactively define approaches and development paths that we – as a society – consider desirable. We cannot, for example, agree to a mitigation target which we cannot afford and will not reach. At the same time, there is a huge opportunity for international investment in climate-friendly technology, which can help us grow more and create new industries.  In other words, we need to work out a range of paths which work for our country.

The method

Over about 18 months, a Scenario Building Team developed the Scenarios. The Team was made up of stakeholders from government, business and civil society and facilitated by expert independent process facilitators with international experience in Scenario Building and climate change issues. The Team was supported by four Research Units, covering Energy Emissions, Non-Energy Emissions, Macro-Economic Modeling, and Climate Change Impacts. These support Units were led by: Harald Winkler (ERC Research team co-ordinator), Alison Hughes (ERC Energy modelling), Bob Scholes (CSIR Non-energy), Kalie Pauw (DPRU Macro-economic) and Guy Midgley (SANBI Impacts).

The Department of Environment and Tourism as the focal point for climate change in South Africa will convene and manage the process, which will be overseen by an inter-ministerial group. DEAT has appointed the Energy Research Centre at the University of Cape Town (ERC) to project manage the entire process.  The ERC is undertaking the task of convening and contracting the process specialists and ensuring their independence. Similarly it is setting up the personnel of each of the four research support units.

Government oversight of this project will be done by DEAT together with DME.

Outputs

The desired objectives of the proposed process are:

• South African stakeholders understand and are focused on a range of ambitious but realistic scenarios of future climate action both for themselves and for the country, based on best available information, notably long-term emissions scenarios and their cost implications;

• The SA delegation is well-prepared with clear positions for post-2012 dialogue;

• Cabinet can approve (a) a long-term climate policy and (b) positions for the dialogue under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change

• Cabinet policy based on the scenarios will assist future work to build public awareness and support for government initiatives.

Initial results

The key findings of the process are that, without constraint, we are likely to see a fourfold increase in emissions by 2050. That would be unacceptable internationally, and is a high-risk approach, not least due to damages of climate change if the world does not act. SA will have to make a massive effort to achieve emissions reductions to meet the 'Required by science' target. But other findings indicate that various strategic mitigation options are immediately implementable, with good emissions reduction results with costs to the economy ranging from affordable to significant. Significant mitigation action can have net public benefits, such as savings in energy bills and increased employment. From a policy point of view, both regulatory and economic instruments are available. In parallel with short-term policy implementation, investment in medium-term R&D will be needed. In the long term, SA must think about its industrial policy, and shift to less emissions-intensive sectors.

Further process

The technical findings will be presented to leaders from government, business, labour and civil society during the first half of 2008. The Inter-Ministerial Committee on climate change will then advise Cabinet on long-term national climate policy, as well as clear and mandated positions for the next round of UN negotiations on climate change.

Low carbon society: Global warming statistics for South Africa

Client:  MIRC

Period: Nov 2007- March 2008

Project leader: Stanford Mwakasonda

This project provides a South African input to the Japan-UK initiative in developing visions for a low-carbon society through sustainable development. Objectives of the initiative include, amongst others:

• Reviewing country-level GHG emissions scenario studies in some developed and developing countries

• Aligning sustainable development and climate change objectives: win-win strategies

• Studying methodologies to achieve a low carbon society, such as depicting visions and pathways

• Sharing best practice,  information

 Outputs for the study include:

• Current trends and policies in South Africa

• Future scenarios towards a 2020/2030 Low Carbon Society

• Barriers and necessary actions to realise a Low Carbon Society

• Write up of report and editing

Available report: Mwakasonda S 2007 South Africa low carbon scenario report

Greenhouse gas information management project

Client:  Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism

Period: June 2007- Dec 2008

Project leader: Stanford Mwakasonda

South Africa is a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). As part of its commitment to the convention, South Africa is required to share information on, among other things, the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. The DEAT is the national focal point for climate change activities, and has the responsibility of co-ordinating South Africa’s obligations under the UNFCCC. Part of this responsibility requires all Parties to the Convention to “Develop, periodically update, publish and make available to the Conference of Parties, in accordance with Article 12, national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases”.

South Africa is among the significant emitters of GHGs, the largest in Africa, with a large share of the emissions of both GHGs and air pollutants coming from the energy sector, which is crucial to the economic development of the country. Accounting for emissions from the energy and other sectors is therefore an essential part of quantifying emissions and producing GHG emission inventories. The IPCC Methodology is the most common in reporting emission levels to the Conference of Parties.

The project will be run in two main areas of work.  These areas determine the kind of activities to be carried out and desired outputs. The two areas of work can be described as follows:

• Preparing the South African national GHG inventory as an input to the second national Communication to the UNFCCC

• Establishing a database and institutionalising a system for data collection on an ongoing basis

C3D - Strengthening human and institutional capacity in developing countries for policy analysis and effective negotiation on climate change

Client: UNITAR CCP

Funders: European Community, Irish Aid, Swiss Agency - Environment & Landscape, Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, AIDCO

Period: Sept 2003 – Oct 2007

Project leader: Harald Winkler

Meeting the challenges of climate change in the future can only be successfully addressed through an effective multilateral negotiation process, one in which all members of the international community actively participate. To help meet this objective, Parties to the UNFCCC have provided funds to enable one or two delegates from eligible non-Annex I Parties to attend the meetings of the COP, the subsidiary bodies and workshops. While continued funding to secure their full participation is important, there is a clear need to go a step further and provide developing country delegates, particularly those from the LDCs, with additional knowledge and process skills. This project aims to support the building-up of capacities in developing countries, not only to better integrate into the international process, including the forthcoming negotiations, but also to train relevant negotiators and decision makers.

What are the objectives of the project?

• An improved participation of developing countries (non-Annex I Parties) in the UNFCCC process;

• A timely implementation of the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol by developing countries;

• A better co-ordination and integration of national climate policies with sustainable development policies;

• A sound implementation of EC and bilateral aid to developing countries in the field of climate change.

Who are the project partners?

The immediate direct beneficiaries of the project include the following three regional partner organisations in Africa and Asia:

• Environnement et Développement du Tiers Monde (ENDA-TM), Sénégal

• Energy Research Centre (ERC), South Africa; and

• Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND), Sri Lanka.

Each of the three partners has specific relevant expertise that will serve as a group resource. A fourth partner, Open University UK, will take the lead in carrying out a study on the potential of ICT related distance learning in the field of climate change policy analysis and co-ordination and negotiation.

How does the project operate?

The three regional partners report to UNITAR CCP in order to allow UNITAR CCP to monitor the project and preparing the reports for the project donors. In order to carry out the activities assigned to them in the work plan, they will re-assign or hire staff to assume various responsibilities under the project. Where appropriate, the regional centres will issue sub-contracts to consultants. The partners will share their skills and experiences through a collaborative online platform, thus allowing the development of a rich set of appropriate training resources. UNITAR CCP will provide assistance to the partners in co-ordinating their activities and will provide backstopping support where necessary and as requested.

Open University UK offers expert guidance on substantive steps to be taken concerning the potential of ICT-related distance learning in the field of climate change policy analysis and negotiation. In cooperation with UNITAR and the three regional centres, the OU team will produce a feasibility study and a preliminary assessment of potential in other regions and for other user groups/training needs. The OU experts will provide multidisciplinary expertise on (a) specific training needs of climate negotiators from developing countries; (b) theory and practice of distance learning and online and multimedia pedagogy, and (c) practical knowledge of users’ technological capacities and needs for online distance learning.

What are the expected results of the project?

Some of the specific short term results expected from the project include:

• The creation of training programmes on negotiation, policy co-ordination and analysis in the field of Climate Change by the regional partner organisations, thus reducing dependence on institutes based in the industrialised countries for skills building and capacity development. To this end between 10 and 20 trainers will be available in each of the three centres, all having gone through an intensive training course developed, designed and implemented by the project.

• South-South collaboration between the regional partner countries and possibly beyond. To this end a network will be set-up allowing the partners to exchange protected information and to upload information to the Internet. Content-wise the network will provide access to a wide range of information needed for policy analysis and co-ordination, and negotiation in the field of Climate Change.

In the longer term, the expected results or impacts of the project including:

• Increasing and sustaining the regional partners’ abilities to: develop and deliver training programme activities; attract high-level government officials (national focal points and other concerned actors) from neighbouring developing countries; and successfully transfer skills and know-how to trainees

• Increasing the capacity of developing country officials to: effectively integrate into the intergovernmental climate policy debate; effectively follow up at the national level in order to meet their obligations under the UNFCCC; and integrate climate change policies in the overall dimensions of sustainable development.