Deep decarbonisation pathways project – Phase 2

Client: German Ministry for Environment

Period: September 2014–October 2015

Project leader: Hilton Trollip

Project team: Hilton Trollip, Tara Caetano, Bruno Merven, Alison Hughes, Katye Altieri, Harald Winkler, with Henri Waismann (IDDRI)

For the DDPP project support team and project teams from some 15 countries see here.

Phase 2 of the Deep decarbonisation pathways project is a collaboration between ERC and the international DDPP founded and coordinated by the Sustainable Development Solutions Network and the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations.

Background: Phase 1 (Phase 2 is a continuation and extension)
The ERC worked with the international DDPP team over the period December 2013 to August 2014 to provide the initial Deep decarbonisation pathways South African Country Chapter for the DDPP Interim 2014 report. As well as the research and provision of the quantitative pathways and drafting of the Country Chapter, this included contributions to the project concept and the report text. A central aspect was introducing a developmental narrative and quantitative developmental indicators to the pathways. (For further information on Phase 1, see here.)

Other links:


Phase 2
ERC is continuing work with the international DDPP team over the period September 2014 to December 2015 to provide a set of final deep decarbonisation pathways for South Africa for the DDPP Final 2015 report. In addition, during 2015, ERC will produce a country report for South Africa, contribute to the design and concept of the project and participate in drafting the final joint report. In this second phase of work, ERC’s efforts will be focused on strengthening the ‘development-first’ narrative by formulating development-climate scenarios.

The work involves significant further development of ERCs versions of the South African eSAGE CGE model and the SATIM model and using them in a soft-linked mode. The CGE model is being extended and adjusted to provide economic trajectories to 2050 that explore to what extent South Africa can meet development imperatives. The SATIM model is being extended to provide more disaggregated and accurate modeling for exploring deep-decarbonisation.

In addition to the provision of the Pathway Results to the multi-team project and the Country Report and work on the joint report the following presentations / publications are envisaged, although depend on selection by various bodies.

  • Presentations to the Our Common Futures Science Conference. Three abstracts have been submitted.
  • Two papers for the special issue of Climate Policy.