Modelling the implications for socio-economic development of mitigation actions by developing countries
Client: Climate and Development Knowledge Network
Period: April 2012 – September 2014
Principal investigator: Harald Winkler
ERC research leader: Alfred Moyo
ERC project team: Harald Winkler, Alfred Moyo, Bruno Merven, Adrian Stone, Anthony Dane
Research leaders at collaborating institutions: Amaro Olimpio Pereira Junior (Brazil), Rodrigo Palma (Chile), Juan Benavides and Ricardo Delgado (Colombia); Angel Salazaar (Peru)
Achieving both development and climate objectives is a key challenge facing developing countries. Policy-makers however lack reliable information on the socio-economic implications of mitigation actions, as the modelling required to provide this information is unavailable.
On this project, five research institutions in developing countries made an undertaking to develop sophisticated models needed to answer policy relevant questions on the implications of mitigation action within their respective countries. The Energy Research Centre collaborated with the Energy Planning Programme at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE), Brazil; the Energy Strategic Research Centre, Universidad de los Andes, Bogota (UniAndes) Colombia; Energy Centre, University of Chile (Chile); and the Instituto de Investigación de la Amazonía Peruana (IIAP), Peru. These institutions are also part of the broader Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) project. For more on MAPS, see www.mapsprogramme.org.
Through this South-South collaboration, cutting edge methodologies were developed to link sectoral and economy-wide models, in order to provide provide a robust information base for policy-making and address issues crucial to the development of climate compatible policy. There was a dedicated research effort to build appropriate modeling tools for each country, with each country team drawing on its existing modeling strengths, contributing to shared learning and learning from others. Each partner focused on issues of particular significance in their country to ensure that results would have higher impact at national level. All considered carbon taxes and their socio-economic implications, using their respective tools.
Five working papers, one from each research partner:
- Vasquez Baos, T G, Salazar, A A V & Del Castillo, D 2014. Agroforestry systems as CER providers: An analysis for the Peruvian amazon region.
- Wills, W, Grottera, C, Weiss, M, Martins, V, dos Santos, L, Moura, G and Moreira, M. 2014. Brazilian Mitigation Scenarios Beyond 2020: Modelling and Methodologies.
- Benavides, C, Gonzales, L, Díaz, M, Palma, R, García, G, Ravizza, C, Fuentes, R. 2014. Economy-Wide Implications of a Carbon Tax in the Chilean Electricity Generation Sector.
- Delgado, R, Alvarez, Matajira, C, Cadena, A and Calderon, S. 2014 Modelling the socio-economic implications of mitigation actions in Colombia. Working Paper,
- Merven, B, Moyo, A, Stone, A, Dane, A and Winkler, H. Socio-economic implications of mitigation in the power sector including carbon taxes in South Africa.
Five policy briefs based on each of the above working papers
A joint paper incorporating all the research work from the consortium partners:
- Winkler, H, Delgado, R, Palma-Behnke, R, Pereira, A, Vasquez Baos, T, Moyo, A, Wills, W and Salazar, A. 2014. Information for a developmental approach to mitigation: Linking sectoral and economy-wide models for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa