The risks of SA’s commitment to nuclear power
ERC’s analysis of the potential socioeconomic risks of the government’s stated commitment to 9.6GW of nuclear power against other supply options is now available for download. The analysis is available in two versions: the full Technical Report, and a shorter, less technical report. The report draws, importantly, the following conclusions:
- A flexible planning approach in the electricity sector is preferred to a commitment to the full nuclear fleet.
- In a future with high growth, assuming low costs for nuclear and limited and expensive alternatives, the commitment to nuclear power could have no significant impact on the electricity price and the economy.
- There is, however, a 94% chance that electricity prices will be higher in 2030 as a result of the commitment to nuclear power, which would have negative impacts on growth, employment and welfare in South Africa.
- In a future with lower growth, higher nuclear costs, and availability of other supply options, the commitment to nuclear power could have significant negative implications for growth, employment and welfare in South Africa.
- Consumers are likely to bear the burden of the investment through higher electricity prices and decreased employment.
Energy Research Centre, 2015. South Africa’s proposed nuclear build plan: An analysis of the potential socioeconomic risks. Technical Report. [The longer version]
Energy Research Centre, 2015. South Africa’s proposed nuclear build plan: An analysis of the potential socioeconomic risks.