Energy and climate policy; mitigation, poverty and inequality; development and mitigation pathways, plans and scenarios; equity; economics of mitigation; carbon pricing; energy for sustainable development.
- PhD in Energy and Development Studies from University of Cape Town (UCT, 2006); thesis title: ‘Energy policies for sustainable development in South Africa’s residential and electricity sectors: Implications for mitigating climate change’
- MSc in Energy and Resources from University of California, Berkeley (1998; Fulbright scholarship)
- MA in Religious Studies from UCT (1989)
- BA in Sociology and African Politics from University of Witwatersrand (1985; distinction, silver medal)
Prof Winkler’s research has informed energy and climate policy at the national level and multi-lateral negotiations. Harald led the research work underpinning South Africa’s Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS). From 2010 to 2015, he co-directed a large programme called MAPS – Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios, sharing the LTMS experience with governments, researchers and facilitators in other developing countries. He has written on topics including transparency, equity and comparative analysis of mitigation actions in developing countries. He developed the proposal of sustainable development policies and measures (SD-PAMs). Research areas have included equity and future commitments to climate action; economics of climate change mitigation; energy scenarios for South Africa and Cape Town; the links between sustainable development and climate change; renewable energy and mitigation. Harald led ERC’s climate change group until 2013, and served a five-year terms as ERC Director from April 2013 to March 2018, thereafter reverting to his role as Professor at ERC.
Appointments, membership and achievements include
- joint Editor-in-Chief of the journal Climate Policy and on editorial boards of four other journals
- Member of the Academy of Science of South Africa
- Coordinating lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on mitigation and development pathways, in 6th assessment (previously lead author in 4th and 5th assessment reports; in 2007, the IPCC as a collective shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore
- Scientific advisor to SA delegation to the negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Paris Agreement
- Member of High Level Economic Commission on Carbon Prices, co-chaired by Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz and Lord Nicholas Stern
- Rated by National Research Foundation as an “internationally acclaimed researcher”
- H-index of 19 on Scopus and 34 on Google scholar; and 1249 and 4264 citations, respectively. See list of recent publications below.
- Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) served both on the CDM Methodology Panel and the Standards Advisory Board of the WWF Carbon Label for CDM projects
- Winner, National Science and Technology Forum (NSTF) Awards: winner 2017/18 special annual theme award Sustainable Energy For All (SE4ALL); finalist 2014/15 in the category NSTFGreenMatter
- Mail & Guardian Climate Leader in 2014
- International jury member for WWF Earth Hour City Challenge
- Previously board member of the SA Weather Services
- Long-time board member of Sustainable Energy Africa
Scopus author ID 7201676551
Prof Winkler’s research interests are focused around climate policy, at international and national level; a strong focus on inequality and climate change mitigation. His research continues in the economics of mitigation, with a renewed focus on carbon pricing and particularly how revenues can be used for poverty reduction. He continues to work on transparency and measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV) mitigation actions. Publications consider equity, both in nationally determined contributions and global models. Prof Winkler is co-leading assessment of mitigation and development pathways for the IPCC.
Prof Winkler supervises PhD and Masters students, those studying in the ERC and UCT’s African Climate and Development Initiative. Harald has taught on energy and climate change at the University of Cape Town since 2000, while based at a research centre. He helped develop a course on Energy and Climate Change (MEC 5090Z) at the University of Cape Town (UCT). He has also taught on other ERC courses, notably Introduction Energy Policy & Sustainable Energy (MEC5091Z), and UCT’s African Climate and Development Initiative’s courses (EGS5031F and EGS5032F) on mitigation, as well as occasional guest lectures. Prof Winkler has been asked to externally examine post-graduate theses by several Universities locally and internationally. Prof Winkler has been leading an ERC team redeveloping ERC’s curriculum for a taught Masters programme, to meet the needs of the energy sector in the 21st century in SA, Africa and internationally.
He is involved in ERC research projects on climate transparency, building on past work on mitigation actions; projects include strong elements of disseminating information to a broader community of practice and building human capacity. He is part of a team considering finance-policy packages. Prof Winkler will contribute to further analysis of deep dearbonisation pathways, and the domestic mitigation measures and policies required to shift to such pathways. He is also providing analytical support to the SA delegation to the UNFCCC, with detailed technical work mitigation accounting, transparency, the global stock-take and the overall work on the ‘Paris rule-book’. In addition to his own research, Prof Winkler plays a small review and mentoring role in other ERC research.
List of Last 10 years publications (newest to oldest)
- Klinsky, S & Winkler, H 2018. Building equity in: strategies for integrating equity into modelling for a 1.5°C world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 376 (2119). http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160461.abstract
- Jotzo, F, Depledge, J & Winkler, H 2018. US and international climate policy under President Trump. Editorial Climate Policy 18 (7): 813-817. 2018/08/09. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2018.1490051
- Kartha, S, Athanasiou, T, Caney, S, Cripps, E, Dooley, K, Dubash, N K, Fei, T, Harris, P, Holz, C, Lahn, B, Moellendorf, D, Müller, B, Roberts, J T, Sagar, A D, Shue, H, Singer, P & Winkler, H 2018. Cascading biases against poorer countries. Comment on Robiou du Pont et al. Paper #NCLIM-17040595B. Correspondence to Nature Climate Change 8: 348–349. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0152-7
- Winkler, H & Marquard, A. 2018, Mitigation accounting under the Paris Agreement: Technical paper. Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town.
- Winkler, H & Depledge, J 2018. Fiji-in-Bonn: will the ‘Talanoa spirit’ prevail? Editorial Climate Policy 18 (2): 141-145. 2018/02/07. 10.1080/14693062.2018.1417001
- Winkler, H, Höhne, N, Cunliffe, G E, Kuramochi, T, April, A & de Villafranca Casas, M J 2017. Countries start to explain how their climate contributions are fair: more rigour needed. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics online (Special Issue on Climate Justice and 1.5°C). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-017-9381-x
- Winkler, H 2017. Reducing energy poverty through carbon tax revenues in South Africa. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa 28 (3): 12-26. http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2017/v28i3a2332
- Winkler, H., Mantlana, B., & Letete, T. (2017). Transparency of action and support in the Paris Agreement Climate Policy 17 (7): 853-872 DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2017.1302918 .
- Spalding-Fecher, R, Joyce, B & Winkler, H 2017. Climate change and hydropower in the Southern African Power Pool and Zambezi River Basin: system-wide impacts and policy implications. Energy Policy 103: 84–97. DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.12.009
- Jotzo, F., Winkler, H., & Depledge, J. (2017). A new era for climate policy. Editorial. Climate Policy, 17(2), 111-112, 10.1080/14693062.2016.1276326.
- Rogelj, J, den Elzen, M G J, Höhne, N, Fransen, T, Fekete, H, Winkler, H, Schaeffer, R, Sha, F, Riahi, K & Meinshausen, M 2016. Paris Agreement climate proposals need boost to keep warming well below 2°C Nature 534 (30 June): 631-639. doi:10.1038/nature18307
- Winkler, H, Delgado, R, Palma, R, Pereira, A O, Vasquez Baos, T G, Moyo, A, Wills, W & Salazar, A A V 2016. Information for a developmental approach to mitigation: linking sectoral and economy-wide models for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa. Climate and Development. doi: 10.1080/17565529.2016.1174660.
- Altieri, K, Trollip, H, Caetano, T, Hughes, A, Merven, B & Winkler, H 2016. Achieving development and mitigation objectives through a decarbonization development pathway in South Africa. Climate Policy. doi: 10.1080/14693062.2016.1150250.
- Winkler, H & Dubash, N 2016. Who determines transformational change in development and climate finance? Climate Policy 16 (6): 783-791. DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2015.1033674
- Winkler, H, Boyd, A, Torres Gunfaus, M & Raubenheimer, S 2015. Reconsidering development by reflecting on climate change International Environmental Agreements 15 (4): 369-385. DOI 10.1007/s10784-015-9304-7.
- Betsill, M, Dubash, N K, Paterson, M, Van Asselt, H, Vihma, A & Winkler, H 2015. Building productive links between the UNFCCC and the broader global climate governance landscape. Global Environmental Politics 15 (2): 1-18.
- Winkler, H & Rajamani, L 2014. CBDR&RC in a regime applicable to all. Climate Policy 14 (1): 102-121 DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2013.791184
- Cohen, B & Winkler, H 2014. Greenhouse gas emissions from shale gas and coal for electricity generation in South Africa. South African Journal of Science 110 (3/4): 31-35.
- Boyd, A, Rennkamp, B, Dane, A & Winkler, H 2014. Current approaches to MRV in South Africa: a scoping study. Climate Policy 14 (3): 397-416.
- Winkler, H 2014. Introduction: Emerging lessons on designing and implementing mitigation actions in five developing countries. Guest editorial. Climate and Development 6 (Special Issue on mitigation actions in five developing countries - Supplement 1): 1-3.
- Coetzee, K & Winkler, H 2014. The international policy context for mitigation actions. Climate and Development 6 (Special Issue on mitigation actions in five developing countries - Supplement 1): 4-11.
- Tyler, E, Boyd, A, Coetzee, K & Winkler, H 2014. A case study of South African mitigation actions. Climate and Development 6 (Special Issue on mitigation actions in five developing countries - Supplement 1): 49-58.
- Garibaldi, J A, Winkler, H, La Rovere, E L, Cadena, A, Palma, R, Sanhueza, J E, Tyler, E & Torres Gunfaus, M 2014. Comparative analysis of five case studies: commonalities and differences in approaches to mitigation actions in five developing countries. Climate and Development 6 (Special Issue on mitigation actions in five developing countries - Supplement 1): 59-70.
- Ebi, K, Hallegatte, S, Kram, T, Arnell, N W, Carter, T R, Edmonds, J, Kriegler, E, Mathur, R, O'Neill, B C, Riahi, K, Winkler, H, Van Vuuren, D & Zwickel, T 2014. A new scenario framework for climate change research: Background, process, and future directions. Climatic Change 122: 363-372 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0912-3.
- Kriegler, E, Edmonds, J, Hallegatte, S, Ebi, K, Kram, T, Riahi, K, Winkler, H & Van Vuuren, D 2014. A new scenario framework for climate change analysis: The role of shared climate policy assumptions Climatic Change 122: 401–414 DOI :10.1007/s10584-013-0971-5.
- Van Vuuren, D, Kriegler, E, O'Neill, B, Ebi, K L, Riahi, K, Carter, T R, Edmonds, J, Hallegatte, S, Kram, T & Winkler, H 2014. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture. Climatic Change 122: 363–372 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1.
- Klinsky, S & Winkler, H 2014. Equity, sustainable development, and climate policy. Editorial. Climate Policy 14 (1): 1-7 DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2014.859352.
- Winkler, H, Letete, T & Marquard, A 2013. Equitable access to sustainable development: operationalizing key criteria. Climate Policy. 13 (4): 41-431
- Tyler, E, Boyd, A, Coetzee, K, Torres Gunfaus, M & Winkler, H 2013. Developing country perspectives on ‘mitigation actions’, ‘NAMAs’, and ‘LCDS’. Climate Policy 13 (6): 770-776.
- Rahlao, S, Mantlana, B, Winkler, H & Knowles, A 2012. South Africa’s national REDD+ initiative: assessing the potential of the forestry sector on climate change mitigation. Environmental Science and Policy 17: 24-32.
- Tait, L & Winkler, H 2012. Estimating greenhouse gas emissions associated with achieving universal access to electricity for all households in South Africa. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa 23 (4): 8-17.
- Winkler, H, Hughes, A, Marquard, A, Haw, M & Merven, B 2011. South Africa’s greenhouse gas emissions under Business-as-Usual: The technical basis of ‘Growth without Constraints’ in the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios. Energy Policy. 39 (10): 5818–5828.
- Vorster, S, Winkler, H & Jooste, M 2011. Mitigating climate change through carbon pricing – the emerging policy debate in South Africa. Climate and Development 3 (3): 242–258.
- Winkler, H & Marquard, A 2011. Analysis of the economic implications of a carbon tax. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa 22 (1): 55-68.
- Rosenberg, S & Winkler, H 2011. Policy review and analysis: Energy efficiency strategy for the Republic of South Africa. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa 22 (4): 67-79
- Winkler, H, Simões, A F, La Rovere, E L, Alam, M, Rahman, A & Mwakasonda, S 2011. Access and affordability of electricity in developing countries, World Development 39 (6): 1037–1050.
- Winkler, H & Beaumont, J 2010. Fair and effective multilateralism in the post-Copenhagen climate negotiations. Climate Policy 10: 638–654.
- Winkler, H, Jooste, M & Marquard, A 2010a. Structuring approaches to pricing carbon in energy- and trade-intensive sectors in South Africa. Climate Policy 9: 527–542.
- Winkler, H & Marquard, A 2010. Putting a price on carbon in the context of development. Editorial Climate Policy 9: 489–493.
- Sathaye, J, Lecocq, F, Masanet, E, Najam, A, Schaeffer, R, Swart, R & Winkler, H 2009. Opportunities to change development pathways toward lower greenhouse gas emissions through energy efficiency Energy Efficiency 2 (4): 317 - 337
- Winkler, H, Hughes, A & Haw, M 2009. Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa’s long-term mitigation scenarios. Energy Policy 37: 4987–4996.
- Winkler, H, Vorster, S & Marquard, A 2009. Who picks up the remainder? Mitigation in developed and developing countries. Climate Policy 9: 634–651.
- Winkler, H & Marquard, A 2009. Changing development paths: From an energy-intensive to low-carbon economy in South Africa. Climate and Development 1 (1): 47-65.
- Winkler, H, 2008. Measurable, reportable and verifiable: the keys to mitigation in the Copenhagen deal. Climate Policy 8: 534–547.
- Winkler, H, Höhne, N & Den Elzen, M 2008 Methods for quantifying the benefits of sustainable development policies and measures (SD-PAMs). Climate Policy 8 (2): 119–134
- Winkler, H 2010. Taking action on climate change: Long-term mitigation scenarios for South Africa. Cape Town, UCT Press.
- Winkler, H 2009. Cleaner energy, cooler climate: Developing sustainable energy solutions for South Africa Cape Town, HSRC Press.
(edited books and books based on special issues of journals)
- Winkler, H & with Coetzee, K (Eds) 2015. Climate change mitigation actions in five developing countries. Book version of Special Issue of Climate and Development. Abingdon, Routledge.
- Winkler, H & Marquard, A (eds) 2010. Putting a price on carbon in South Africa and other developing countries. Book version of Special Issue of Climate Policy, guest editors. London, Earthscan.
- Winkler, H 2017. Mitigation (Article 4), chapter 9 in D Klein, P Carazo, J Bulmer, M Doelle and A Higham (eds). The Paris Agreement on climate change: Analysis and commentary. ISBN: 9780198803768. Oxford, Oxford University Press: 135-159.
- den Elzen, M G J, Fransen, T, Höhne, N, Winkler, H, Schaeffer, R, Sha, F, Garg, A, with Cunliffe, G, Fekete, H, Ge, M, Grassi, G, Roelfsema, M, Rogelj, J, Sterl, S & Vasquez, E 2015. The emissions gap in 2025 and 2030. UNEP (ed). The emissions gap report 2015: A UNEP synthesis report. Nairobi, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP
- Winkler, H 2010. An architecture for long-term climate change: North-South cooperation based on equity and common but differentiated responsibilities. pp. 97-115 in F Biermann, P Pattberg and F Zelli (eds). Global climate governance beyond 2012: Architecture, agency and adaptation, Cambridge University Press.
- Winkler, H 2009. Mitigation is an energy issue in South Africa. in R Zipplies (ed). Bending the curve: Your guide to tackling climate change in South Africa. Cape Town, Africa Geographic 120-137.
- Winkler, H & Zipplies, R 2009. Taking on a fair share: The goliath of Africa’s emissions. in R Zipplies (ed). Bending the curve: Your guide to tackling climate change in South Africa. Cape Town, Africa Geographic 108-119. ISBN: 978 06 2041 542 2
- Sathaye, J, Najam, A, Cocklin, C, Heller, T, Lecocq, F, Llanes-Regueiro, J, Pan, J, Petschel-Held, G, Rayner, S, Robinson, J, Schaeffer, R, Sokona, Y, Swart, R & Winkler, H 2007. Sustainable development and mitigation. Chapter 12. in B Metz, O D Davidson, P Bosch, R Dave and L M Meyer (eds). Climate Change 2007: Mitigation, Contribution of Working Group III to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Cambridge University Press.
WORKING PAPERS (selected)
- Stiglitz, J, Stern, N, Duan, M, Edenhofer, O, Giraud, G, Heal, G, La Rovere, E L, Morris, A, Moyer, E, Pangestu, M, Shukla, P R, Sokona, Y & Winkler, H 2017. Report of the high-level commission on carbon prices. Supported by the World Bank Group; Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maitrise de l'Energie; Ministere de la transition ecologique et solidaire, Republique Francaise. Washington, Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition. https://www.carbonpricingleadership.org/report-of-the-highlevel-commission-on-carbon-prices
- Merven, B, Arndt, C & Winkler, H 2016. The development of a linked modelling framework for analysing socio-economic impacts of energy and climate policies in South Africa. UNU WIDER working paper. Cape Town and Washington, United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Trollip, H, Caetano, T, Hughes, A, Altieri, K, Merven, B & Winkler, H 2015. Pathways to deep decarbonisation: South Africa chapter. part of DDPP 2015 final report of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project. Cape Town, Paris and New York, Energy Research Centre, with Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) and Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI).
- Winkler, H, Delgado, R, Palma, R, Pereira, A O, Vasquez Baos, T G, Moyo, A, Wills, W & Salazar, A A V 2014. Information for a developmental approach to mitigation: Linking sectoral and economy-wide models for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa. Joint paper for CDKN project on Linking sectoral and economy-wide models. Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town. Http://www.erc.uct.ac.za.
- Trollip, H, Winkler, H & Merven, B 2014. Pathways to deep decarbonsiation: South Africa chapter. part of DDPP 2014 interim report of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project. Cape Town, Paris and New York, Energy Research Centre, with Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) and Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI). http://unsdsn.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/DDPP_2014_report_South_Africa_chapter.pdf.
- Martin, B & Winkler, H 2014. Procurement models applied to independent power producer programmes in South Africa. Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town. http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications/14-Martin-WInkler-Procument_models_for_IPPs.pdf
- Merven, B, Moyo, A, Stone, A, Dane, A & Winkler, H 2014. The socio-economic implications of mitigation actions in the power generation sector and carbon taxes in South Africa. Working paper for CDKN project on Linking sectoral and economy-wide models. Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town. Http://www.erc.uct.ac.za
- Winkler, H 2014. International requirements for transparency of mitigation actions. Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town. http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications/14-Winkler-Transparency_of_MAs.pdf
- Wlokas, H L, Rennkamp, B, Torres Gunfaus, M, Winkler, H, Boyd, A, Tyler, E & Fedorsky, C 2012. Low Carbon Development and Poverty: Exploring poverty alleviating mitigation action in developing countries. Research Report for MAPS (Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios). Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town. http://www.mapsprogramme.org/knowledge-sharing/research_lce-and-poverty-paper_120330/
- Winkler, H & Marquard, A 2012. Methodologies for carbon budgets in South Africa. Report prepared for Sustainable Energy Africa's low -carbon economy work programme in support of the National Planning Commission Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town.
- Boyd, A, Rennkamp, B, Winkler, H, Larmour, R, Letete, T, Rahlao, S & Trikam, A 2011. South African approaches to measuring, reporting and verifying: A scoping report. Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town.
- Arnell, N, Kram, T, Carter, T, Ebi, K, Edmonds, J, Hallegatte, S, Kriegler, E, Mathur, R, O'Neill, B, Riahi, K, Winkler, H, Van Vuuren, D & Zwickel, T 2011. A framework for a new generation of socioeconomic scenarios for climate change impact, adaptation, vulnerability and mitigation research. Draft for comments. http://www.isp.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/Scenario_FrameworkPaper_15aug11_0.pdf
- Marquard, A, Trollip, H & Winkler, H 2011. Opportunities for and costs of mitigation in South African economy. Paper for the climate change response science-policy dialogue series. Pretoria, Department of Environmental Affairs.
- Winkler, H, Letete, T & Marquard, A 2011. A South African approach - responsibility, capability and sustainable development. BASIC experts (Ed). Equitable access to sustainable development: Contribution to the body of scientific knowledge. Beijing, Brasilia, Cape Town and Mumbai, BASIC expert group.
- Winkler, H, Marquard, A, Tyler, E, Visser, M & Brick, K 2009. Economics of climate change: Context and concepts related to mitigation. Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town. www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/ECCM/ECCM-intro.htm accessed 30 April 2009.
- Winkler, H & Marquard, A 2009. Analysis of the implications of a carbon tax. Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town.
- Witi, J, Davis, S, Winkler, H & Marquard, A 2009. Low carbon society project: A South African case study. Cape Town, Energy Research Centre.
- Winkler, H, Marquard, A & Letete, T 2009. Analysis of possible quantified emission reduction commitments by individual Annex I Parties Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town.